Property trends: CoreLogic CEO Kelvin Davidson
A deep and prolonged downturn in property values is still helping buyers.
The downturn since 2021 has given buyers increased pricing power. Nationally, values have fallen by nearly 18% from their post-Covid peak. Roughly three years on from that peak, the largest declines in values among the main centres have been seen in Wellington and Auckland, down by around 25% and 22% respectively. At the other end of the spectrum, Christchurch is down by only 7%.

It is not a surprise to see property values generally remaining subdued, given plenty of challenging factors.In December, the national figure edged down by another 0.2%. That was the ninth fall in the past 10 months, with those drops initially reflecting high mortgage rates, but more recently the weakness of the labour market.
While sales volumes have risen gently for around 18 months, they remain below normal and haven’t significantly impacted the stock of available listings on the market. Total listings on the market remain elevated, up around 25% compared with the five-year average, so buyers certainly have the pricing power.
It’s not great news for homeowners, especially those that purchased around peak levels, although ultimately the downturn conditions are most favourable for recent buyers. While affordability is still stretched, the majority of borrowers are now opting for floating rates or 6-12 month fixed terms.
Looking ahead, there are some supports for the market, and also challenges that buyers can anticipate. Lower mortgage rates may be a boost for sales volumes and property values, however there are also debt to income ratio caps lurking on the horizon.