Leading with optimism

For the first time in five years, small and medium-sized businesses (SMEs) feel optimistic about the year ahead.

Confidence has entered positive territory according to MYOB’s 2025 Business Monitor, backed by revenue improvements across a range of local industries. The proportion of SMEs predicting the economy to improve within 12 months is at its highest since 2016.

“The turnaround we’re beginning to see and the reprieve from falling interest rates and lower inflation can’t come soon enough,” says MYOB Chief Executive Paul Robson. “Demonstrating unquestionable resilience, business owners at the helm of New Zealand’s SMEs have done a remarkable job steering their organisations through an incredibly testing time. As the economy starts to show some signs of recovery, it’s encouraging to see more businesses reporting growth and feeling more stable when it comes to their overall financial position.”

The annual survey of 1026 SME owners and operators nationwide shows 46% expect the economy to improve over the next 12 months, while 32% forecast a decline. One in five (21%) expect economic conditions to remain as they are.

A startling comparison to the same time last year, when 40% believed the economy would decline and 37% expected it to improve. The survey, conducted from 24 January to 3 March 2025, reports a higher percentage in business performance over the last year – 28% are seeing a revenue increase from the past 12 months. SMEs are gaining optimism, yet continue to feel the pinch from inflation rises to date. The ongoing threat of inflation concerns 63%, consumer confidence and spending is worrying 46% of SMEs, with the rising cost of utilities concerning 42%.

One-in-five SME operators say they are ‘very concerned’ about rising energy prices and their impact on their business this year. Those surveyed reported a staggering $1600 average increase in overhead costs per month over the last year.